Perform predictive stocking based on ENSO

CLEM.Activities.RuminantActivityPredictiveStockingENSO

Manages changes in herd based on climate forecasts relating to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase.

Current beta release and not tested!

This activity requires detailed understanding of SOI, ENSO phase cut-offs and the ability to provide pasture biomass versus herd change relationships.

This activity uses the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) to define the current El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase (El Niño, La Niña, or Neutral) as a prediction of likely seasonal rainfall and subsequent grass production. Destocking could be implemented based on the likelihood of drought (El Niño) as a function of the current pasture biomass while restocking performed when there is more confidence during periods of La Niña phase. This activity utilises a file of historic monthly SOI values to calculate a mean over a specified previous period which is compared with defined cut-offs for each phase. The types of individuals destocked and restocked are defined by a number of components supplied below this activity. The activity will perform the required actions on all paddocks containing individuals unless Ruminant activity groups are used to specify particular locations.

The following parameters are used to define this activity

This file provides the Southern Oscillation Index values.

The number of previous moths in which to determine the mean SOI value

The minimum running mean to determine La Nina

The maximum running mean to determine La Nina

The minimum biomass of pasture (kg/ha) for each paddock before restocking is permitted.

This parameter will determine what action is taken if there are insufficient resources to perform this activity.

You can report an error and stop the simulation, skip this activity or use the resources available. See What to do when resources are limiting

The following components are required to use this activity

This activity contains any number of Ruminant group components where each defines the individuals that can be sold in order until the required reduction is achieved, or there are no more suitable animals to sell. These groups must have a style set to Reduce

For example, you may wish to destock all males not sires, followed by poor condition and dry breeders, then old breeders. This activity also defines the pasture level before re-stocking is again undertaken for each paddock that this task is applied to.

This activity contains any number of Specify ruminant components used to define the individuals added during restocking.

Note: At present there is no way to specify different animals to be stocked based on each paddock managed without applying individual versions of this activity for each paddock

A Relationship is required below this activity for defining the rate of change in the herd as a function of grass biomass (kg/ha) for each of the El Niño and La Niña phases. These relationship components require the identifiers PastureToStockChangeElNino or PastureToStockChangeLaNinato represent the relationship for El Niño and La Niña respectively.

While the cut-off property determines the current ENSO phase, it is this relationship that determines any change in the herd numbers. As this activity doe not have any undersyanding of maximum herd sizes, we rely on making herd change decisions based on the phase and current pasture biomass in the paddock such that change can be set to zero when pasture is low removing any action regardless of ENSO phase.

The following components will add additional functionality to this activity

This activity provides the following identifiers: Destock required and  Restock required

This activity provides the following units for components: fixed and per AE

Any Labour requirement will include labour allocation to perform this activity based on any specified identifiers and units and may limit the outcomes if supported and OnPartialResourcesAvailableAction set to UseAvailableWithImplications

Any Activity fee will include financial costs based on any specified identifiers and units and may limit the outcomes if supported and OnPartialResourcesAvailableAction set to UseAvailableWithImplications

Use the available timers to determine the month for assessing the SOI values and performing any actions.

This activity will obey all Ruminant activity group in the simulation tree at and above it's location.

Only one instance of this component is permitted in each Activity.

This activity is performed during the Stock event of the setup and time-step events. This ensures that destocking can overrule decisions made by the herd management and mark for sale activities if needed.

See also